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Iran

Iran Rebuilding Ballistic Missile Manufacturing Capabilities with China's Support

Iran is in the process of restoring its ballistic-missile production capacity with assistance from Chinese sources, according to assessments cited by regional outlets. Since the 12-Day War, Tehran has imported more than 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate, a key oxidizer for solid-fuel rockets—an amount analysts say would be sufficient to propel fuel production for over 500 missiles. The renewed procurement, combined with upgrades to production infrastructure, points to an effort to reconstitute and potentially exceed pre-war capabilities despite ongoing sanctions regimes designed to limit precisely these activities.

The supply chain described in the reporting relies on commercial fronts and opaque brokers who can move dual-use materials through jurisdictions with limited enforcement or political willingness to confront the trade. In parallel, monitoring organizations have noted suspicious movements and atypical activity patterns around several facilities linked to missile development, suggesting that the pace of refurbishment has quickened. The picture that emerges is of a sanctions-savvy program able to exploit gaps in oversight while testing how much international pressure key suppliers are willing to withstand.

If these trends continue, the strategic implications could be significant. A reconstituted and expanded Iranian missile inventory would shift the deterrence calculus across the region, strengthening Tehran’s hand with proxies and complicating air-defense planning for Israel and allied partners. It would also raise the stakes in any future negotiations over Iran’s nuclear activities, since accurate delivery systems are critical to the value of any fissile capability and are a focal point for non-proliferation policy.

For policymakers, the findings underscore persistent challenges in enforcing export controls, the necessity of coordinated action among major powers, and the consequences when suppliers look the other way. Whether through tighter interdiction, diplomatic leverage, or targeted sanctions that bite into the networks facilitating these transfers, the responses chosen in the near term will shape the trajectory of Iran’s missile program and the risks faced by civilians across the Middle East.

(JPost/VFI News)

“No weapon formed against you shall prosper.” – Isaiah 54:17